A good red-zone percentage describes past possessions. It does not select Thursday’s play. Dallas has turned 81.3% of its trips inside the 20 into touchdowns through four games.
Tampa Bay has surrendered touchdowns on 45.5% of the red-zone possessions it has faced. Those numbers do not forecast Thursday night, but they frame the contest neatly: Dallas has been unusually efficient near the goal line, and Tampa Bay has been unusually stingy there despite an 0-4 record.
The Cowboys host Tampa Bay at 7:15 p.m. Thursday in Arlington. Wednesday’s final game designations brought meaningful clarity. Rueben Bain Jr. practiced fully for Tampa Bay and was listed without a game designation after missing the previous two contests. CeeDee Lamb also practiced fully for Dallas and had no designation attached to his thigh issue.
Neither practice status guarantees a particular workload or performance. It does alter the passing equation. Bain’s expected return gives Tampa another edge rusher Dallas must account for, while Lamb remains the receiver who leads the NFL with 37 catches for 498 yards.
Dak Prescott enters with 1,065 passing yards, eight touchdown passes and a 105.0 passer rating. Dallas has enough continuity at quarterback and receiver to expect Tampa to challenge a functioning passing attack rather than merely hope the Cowboys misfire.
The Cowboys also have multiple ways to finish once the field tightens. Jake Ferguson’s 12 catches for 83 yards do not resemble a volume-heavy receiving line, yet three of those receptions have been touchdowns. That is a narrow statistical footprint with a useful concentration: his 2025 work near the goal line warrants attention.
Dallas targeted him 13 times inside the 10 last year, with six resulting touchdowns.
Javonte Williams offers a different solution. He has 231 rushing yards and six total touchdowns, including three in Sunday’s 34-30 victory over Houston. His value here comes from helping an entire scoring plan rather than requiring every possession to end with the same player.
Still, the larger point stands: Dallas has repeatedly used Williams as a possession finisher, with his impact extending beyond a simple rushing-yardage comparison.
Tampa’s defense has earned a serious examination of that variety. The Buccaneers give up 78.5 rushing yards per game, third fewest in the NFL, and opponents convert only 32.7% of their third downs. Across the three games immediately preceding Thursday, each Tampa opponent was held to 285 yards or fewer.
The 17-14 loss to Green Bay included an interception and a forced fumble by the Buccaneers’ defense, too. The winless Buccaneers have enough defensive resistance to make Dallas work for scoring chances.
Bain’s return could make Dallas’ protection and Prescott’s timing more important. Tampa has recorded six sacks through four games, while Buccaneers pass protection has allowed sacks on 12.70% of pass attempts, the league’s highest rate. That split creates opportunity for Dallas, although the Cowboys have only four sacks and no interceptions themselves.
